It is very hard to predict a moving target.
Yet many are trying to, calling the current situation the ‘new normal’ and predicting all kinds of changes, almost all of which go against (and in some cases radically), long term trends.
Some of the talking heads – it appears to me – haven’t stopped for a second, looked in the mirror and said to themselves, does this really apply to me?
Will I do what I am saying once this episode passes?
Will most (or any) of my work colleagues, friends and family do what I am suggesting?
Many of the more common suggestions – working from home, social distancing to stay, radical changes in jobs, finance and in short, the way we live – are against human nature.
Most of us are village people.
We need social interaction and not just the digital kind.
I, for one, cannot wait to get back down to our local café and the corner pub.
I am a loner by nature, but I am missing meetings, face to face conversations and even arguing.
Well if I am honest, I miss the faceoffs the most!
I also don’t like predictions.
Many want me to put a number on a future outcome.
I resist doing such as it really is guesstimating at best.
BS more likely.
I rather limit my endeavours to foresight.
I know that sounds quite up myself, but I am into trying to understand the shape of things rather than presuming their exact structure or mould.
I think that is more accurate and useful. To understand is better than blind acceptance.
So, I will say, for example, that house prices could rise – because of these reasons (list them) and the quantum is likely, based on evidence at hand, between 3% and 5% over the next 12 to 18 months.
But I won’t try and be more exact than that.
I won’t say anything like prices will rise by 4.9%; yet many of my contemporaries do.
The decimal point – which seems to feature glaringly in such gibberish – I always find quite amusing.
In short predicting is a mugs game.
And more like a fool’s errand given the current circumstances.
So, when will this be over?
Will the economy recover?
What shape (an L, U, V or W) will any recovery take?
I really don’t know.
All I know is that this too shall pass.
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