Michael a good article and some good comments. Real Estate is such a big investment that one shouldn’t get too distracted by theoretical cogitations. Expertise is overrated especially Economists. Sometimes I think it is better to do exactly the opposite of what they recommend. My personal strategy is to focus on one capital city in one state with good historic growth such as Melbourne or Sydney and getting to know your suburb and street values in depth. I cannot forecast whether Sydney will do better than Melbourne or vice versa this year and I really don’t care. This is a long term investment and market will revalue if a big value gap appears. It is better to be approximately right rather than to be precisely wrong. This is like trying to forecast the weather . In the Northern Hemisphere in August on a hot day if somebody wants you to forecast the temperature on December 25th nobody can. But if you say it is going to be colder than today you will be accurate. This is the approach you need to take in forecasting. Also stay away from risky ventures. Warren Buffett expressed this best when he said while we applaud space exploration we do not wish to participate in it. Power of compounding is the way to go. Warren Buffett made 99% of his wealth after he was 50 and maybe more than 95% after he was 57/58. When you get the urge to trade more or buy interstate or some hot location or do some unnecessary renovations or value add go and lie down till the feeling passes away.