Is it really all doom and gloom after the boom in Western Australia?

What’s ahead for Western Australia’s economy, it’s population growth and it’s property markets.

Is it all doom and gloom or is there an upside.

Of course there is an upside – each downturn sets the stage for the next property cycle just as each boom paves the way for the next downturn.

But when will this happen?

Now that’s a good question and to be frank, no one really knows but it’s one of the topics I’ll be addressing at my National Economic and Property Market Update 1 day training in Perth on 29th April.

If you haven’t reserved your seats yet please click here and join me.

Clearly Perth’s property market is still in a slump:

So what’s ahead?

Recently demographers .id The Population Experts took a look at what is happening in the West, including the demographic trends affecting the state’s population and the future outlook for WA’s population in the next 20 years.

How is Western Australia’s population changing?

Some highlights include:

In the last decade, WA’s population increased by over 511,000, boosting the state’s total population to over 2.6 million.
During the height of the mining boom, the state’s population growth rate peaked at 3.6% p.a., well above that of Australia.
More recently, WA’s population growth has slowed from its previous heights.

Population growth rate, Western Australia and Australia, 1972-2016

Sources: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014 (Cat. 3105.0), ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, 2016 (Cat. 3101.0)

The strong population growth WA experienced in the last decade has dropped substantially in more recent years.

WA’s population grew at an average annual rate of over 2.5% p.a. in the period from 2006 to 2016, peaking at 3.6% in 2012.

In the last two years WA has recorded a lower annual growth rate than the national average (1.3% in 2015 and 1.1% in 2016).

In the longer term, however .id expect a recovery to an average annual population growth rate of 1.8% by 2020.

How will the population of Western Australia change in the future?

WA’s population is set to increase by more than a million people over the next 20 years.

The population of Greater Perth is projected to increase from 2.10 million in 2017 to 2.96 million in 2037.

This increase represents 86 per cent of the total population increase for Western Australia.

Population change, Western Australia, selected SA2s – suburb equivalent, 2017-2027

Source: .id, SAFi 2016, shown in .id Placemaker

Forecast population growth in Perth is typically on the fringe of the city, with notable exceptions in Victoria Park and City of Perth where there is vigorous apartment development.

Change in number of dwellings, Western Australia, selected SA2s -suburb equivalent, 2017-2027

Source: .id SAFi, Western Australia, 2016

In regional Western Australia, mining areas such as the Pilbara-Kimberley are expected to recover from the current downturn with renewed investment and development.

There will be a number of local government areas in the Wheat Belt and Outback which are likely to have smaller populations in the future.

Population change, Local Government Areas in Western Australia, 2017-2037

Source: .id SAFi, Western Australia, 2016

Source: .id The Population Experts

About Michael Yardney

Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and one of Australia's 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au