Are you a Brisbane property investor like me who has been bitterly disappointed as other property markets continue to outperform?
Have you been lured in by the headlines each and every year, about this year being the year for Brisbane, only to see it miss out again?
Well I can assure you that you are not alone.
It is almost like Brisbane is the bridesmaid or the ugly stepsister compared to our other capital cities.
Is the Brisbane property market finally going to corner and deliver for us patient investors?
CoreLogic certainly thinks so…
After a poor few years, it appears as though Brisbane is certainly about to hit its stride with a forecast of 10% growth for the year ahead by CoreLogic.
Sure! You’ve heard that before right?…. so, what is different this time around you may be thinking?
Here are my thoughts…
Well here are three things that I have identified;
1. Jobs growth
In my opinion, Brisbane is one of the premiere lifestyle capitals in the country.
I can certainly attest to that, particularly in our Winter months where I barely even throw on a jumper during the cooler months.
This may be so, however people will be reluctant to move to a lifestyle capital without a job and that has been the problem!
The last decade was plagued by the GFC, a Flood and Mining downturns and the Economy has struggled to create enough jobs and opportunities to attract interstate and overseas workers.
Adding to that, I can only think of one or two major projects over the last decade also that created many jobs at all – tunnels and construction.
Hardly enough to attract people from making the journey from overseas or interstate.
But the next decade has started of considerably different and this is why so many are optimistic.
There are 8 big projects that will change or City and create a HUGE amount of jobs, along with many smaller projects in and around the river city;
These projects will create the types of jobs that will build upon our lifestyle benefits, but more importantly, create the type of jobs that will attract migrants from around the globe.
And we are starting to see the results already.
2. Population growth
With a record amount of jobs being created over the next 5 years, our population will continue to grow and at a higher rate than ever before;
You can see below we are back above the 10-year average after the falls in 2011(floods) and 2014 (mining).
Once people have a job the next step is to find a place to live.
So, as a Property Investor, it is important to know and understand where these jobs are being created, as people will want to live as close as possible to where they are working.
Here’s a hint – ALL of these projects are either in the CBD or within the 5km ring from the CBD itself.
Speculators continually tell me that a new University on the Sunshine Coast or a new Hospital on the Gold Coast will create above average property growth.
The reality Is, 500 new jobs in an outer area is a far cry from 50,000+ jobs within the 5km ring of a capital city.
And this is what you need to understand to capitalise.
Not all areas of Queensland or Brisbane for that matter will receive the same amount of growth.
3. Demand for housing
When I wrote a similar article back in 2017, there was no way to measure the impact on housing growth.
Especially given we have since had a few lean years of growth, with Brisbane growing by 0.3% in 2018 and then declining by 0.5% in 2019.
But now with a forecast of 10% growth this year, we will begin to see the impacts of a stronger demand for housing.
One thing that barely rates a mention in the media and statistical analysis of our property market is the Brisbane auction results.
Understandably, as Brisbane is not a strong auction market – is lucky to have one-eighth of the amount of properties auctioned off when compared to our southern states each weekend.
But we can all agree the way the market closed out 2019, is vastly different to what we saw to round out 2018 or probably any other year for the past decade.
The green line represents the last 4 weeks of 2018 and is typically what you would expect from an average Brisbane weekend of Auctions – hovering between 30% to 40% (on a good weekend).
The red line however is what we saw during the last 4 weeks of 2019.
There is a clear difference, with the average clearance rate being as much as double in some cases and hovering between 55% to 65%.
If you are not an analytical type person, showing you what is happening here at ground level, may help you digest this information easier.
Haven spoken to many local agents on my return from holidays, it is clear that they are reporting record numbers through their open homes.
The property above, around 7km North of the CBD in Kedron is the clear standout, with the agent reporting 71 people through it’s first open home in just 30 minutes!
Understandably is was Under Contract shortly after, receiving multiple offers.
In concluding, we have heard the Media say consistently that Brisbane property prices will rise, year after year.
Although Brisbane is an incredible place to live, nobody will move here without a level of financial security or certainty and jobs are what counts.
After a poor decade, we have a huge number of projects lined up for the next 5 years that will not only put Brisbane on the map but will provide the missing ingredient for migrants – JOBS.
We are already seeing our annual population growth return to levels above the 10-year average.
Demand for property is also soaring, with Auction clearance rates and numbers through Open Homes at record levels.
That is why this time will be different and why the numbers are telling a story and if the experts are right, this is the year it could start to fire up.
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