Contrary to what most commentators say about the new housing market, almost all locales have an excess of new housing supply when compared to underlying demand.
This is how residential building markets work – projects are approved, they sell, more often than not, off-plan and start construction.
There is always a stock overhang.
The extent of the overhang is what matters.
Our new supply count is based on commencements, not approvals, and also factors in those dwellings likely to be unoccupied (locked-up) or not used for permanent residents (i.e. hotels and other short-term accommodation).
Here is another table from our Capital Cities Market Outlook Report.
It outlines the current state of play regarding new housing demand and supply.
Our benchmarks here are:
- Under a twelve month supply – tight, much more new construction needed – new dwelling values/rents should rise.
- Between twelve and 24 months – healthy balance, more construction needed – some increase in new values or rents.
- Between 24 and 36 months – slightly oversupplied, little new construction expected – usually no change in new dwelling values or rents.
- Between 36 and 48 months – oversupplied, no new construction warranted at that time, some projects don’t proceed – new dwelling values and rents often fall.
- Over 48 months – very oversupplied, few new proposals proceed – falling values and rents.
Subscribe & don’t miss a single episode of Michael Yardney’s podcast
Hear Michael & a select panel of guest experts discuss property investment, success & money related topics. Subscribe now, whether you're on an Apple or Android handset.
Need help listening to Michael Yardney’s podcast from your phone or tablet?
We have created easy to follow instructions for you whether you're on iPhone / iPad or an Android device.
Prefer to subscribe via email?
Join Michael Yardney's inner circle of daily subscribers and get into the head of Australia's best property investment advisor and a wide team of leading property researchers and commentators.