We’re used to monthly, weekly and even daily house price reports.
That’s very different from when I first started investing and housing stats only came out once a year.
Interestingly the Australian Bureau of Statistics only released its Residential House Price Index Quarterly believing this gives an more accurate assessment and smoothes out the ups and downs.
They recently (11th December) released their latest showing their price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.5% in the September quarter 2018.
The index fell 1.9% through the year to the September quarter 2018.
State by State
- The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was $6,847,057.2m at the end of the September quarter 2018, falling $70,148.6m over the quarter.
- The mean price of residential dwellings fell $9,700 to $675,000 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 40,900 to 10,143,700 in the September quarter 2018.
- The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Melbourne (-2.6%), Sydney (-1.9%), Perth (-0.6%) and Darwin (-0.9%), and rose in Brisbane (+0.6%), Adelaide (+0.6%), Hobart (+1.3%) and Canberra (+0.5%).
- Annually, residential property prices fell in Sydney (-4.4%), Darwin (-4.4%), Melbourne (-1.5%), Perth (-0.5%) and rose in Hobart (+13.0%), Canberra (+3.7%), Adelaide (+2.0%) and Brisbane (+1.7%).
Here’s what’s happened in the long term
Looking at the long run figures the case for a raging property bubble isn’t an especially strong one, with the weighted average capital city price index slightly more than doubling over the 15 years to September 2018.
A glance at a compound interest rate table tells you equates to a compound annual growth rate of ~5 per cent, while prices would already be some way lower today as I write this in December.
This was a 15-year period through which the Aussie population increased by 5¼ million – overwhelmingly into a handful of capital cites – and the standard variable mortgage rate declined by ~125 basis points.
Here’s a snapshot of some of the fundamentals affecting our real estate markets
Source of graphics: Property Council of Australia
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