Guess who’s moving to Brisbane

There are some positive trends underpinning the future of the Brisbane property market.

  • Our economy is picking up, Brisbane
  • There are significant infrastructure expenditures, jobs are being created.
  • Jobs growth was at a 10 year high in late 2017
  • The lower Australian Dollar has assisted with tourism increases and exporting of our goods.
  • Our population is growing.
  • Migration from Interstate and Overseas has nearly doubled over the last few years

Recently Place Advisory analysed these population trends to find out who is moving to Brisbane, and what impact this is likely to have on the Brisbane residential property market

Here’s a summary of their comprehensive article:

Queensland Population Trends

Population increases in Queensland declined significantly since peaking in 2008 with a population increase of 116,389 people. 

graphic-brisb-new

Bottoming in 2015 with an increase of only 58,818 people to Queensland, the lowest level since 1999, population growth recovered to record an increase of 83,012 people in 2017 – a growth rate of 1.67% compared to 2016.

Increases in population growth over the past two years have been largely led by migration.

In 2017 an estimated 31,043 people migrated to Queensland from overseas, an increase of 64% compared to 2015, .

Queensland Population Growth Breakdown: 1997 – 2017

Greater Brisbane Population Growth

QLD Population Breakdown Chart

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Prepared by Place Advisory

Interstate migration increased by an impressive 159% in 2017 over the last 2 years with New South Wales accounting for the majority of net interstate migration with a surplus of 12,246 people (63% of the total).

Net Interstate Migration To Queensland 3Net Interstate Migration to Queensland

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Prepared by Place Advisory

How Many of These People are Moving to Brisbane?

At the end 2017, Greater Brisbane’s population was recorded at 2,408,223 people, increasing by 47,982 over the previous year.

Accounting for natural increases, this means that approximately 58% of total migration to Queensland in 2017 ended up in Greater Brisbane.

Greater Brisbane Population GrowthGreater Brisbane Population Growth

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Prepared by Place Advisory

Who’s coming to Queensland?

Taking the average age breakdown of all net migration to Queensland shows that an average of 53% of people moving here are aged between 20 and 49 years of age and are therefore highly likely to enter the workforce.

Furthermore, an average of 40% of people were aged 19 and below, suggesting that a large proportion are families with children.

Age Bracket MigrationAge Bracket Migration 2

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Prepared by Place Advisory

Additionally, overseas migrants and their likelihood of purchasing a property is highly determined on which visa they possess. Brisbane Property Investment2

Those with permanent visas are much more likely to purchase property at some point than those with temporary visas.

The latest ABS data reveals that as migration bottomed leading into 2015, there was a significant reduction in the proportion of New Zealand citizens and permanent visa holders moving to Queensland.

Therefore, exacerbating the impact of lower migration levels on the property market.

What Does the Future Hold?

The population of Greater Brisbane is expected to experience solid growth over the coming 10 years.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has predicted strong population growth at an average of 62,410 people in Brisbane per year over this period.

In 2018, the growth rate is projected to be 2.3% decreasing to 2.1% in 2026 and remaining steady.

Greater Brisbane Population Projections

Population Projections Greater BrisbanePopulation Projections Greater Brisbane

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics. Prepared by Place Advisory

Whilst, family households are expected to see the largest increase over the next 10 years, the Australian Bureau of statistics projects that lone person households will have the highest growth rate leading into 2028, averaging a 2.4% increase per annum.

This is followed by family households which have a projected average growth rate of 1.8% per annum over the same time frame. Group households are set to see the smallest growth rate at an average of 1.4% per year.

Greater Brisbane Household Projections

House Hold Projections Greater BrisbaneHouse Hold Projections Greater Brisbane

Australian Bureau of Statistics. Prepared by Place Advisory

What Does This All Mean?

Place Advisory suggest Queensland’s growing population will increase the demand for residential property with Brisbane being the largest beneficiary as it accounts for the majority of this population growth.

In the short term this should see Brisbane’s vacancy rate remain stable and begin to decline as residential construction significantly declines and extra supply is absorbed, with the last significant wave of apartment completions set to hit the Inner Brisbane market in 2018. Brisbane Suburb

With at least 60% of migration not having children and lone households projected to experience the highest growth rate of all household types, the average household size should slowly edge lower.

This will mean a higher rate of supply will be needed in future periods to find market equilibrium and increased demand for smaller sized dwellings.

With a current average household size of 2.7 people in Brisbane and a population growth set to be in the range of 40,000 to 65,000 people annually over the next 10 years, 14,815 to 24,074 new dwellings will be required per year.

If the average household size was to edge lower to 2.5 as expected, this required supply would increase by between 1,185 to 1,926 additional dwellings per year.

Read the full article at Place Advisory

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About

Brett Warren is Director of Metropole Properties Brisbane and uses his 13 plus years property investment experience to advise clients how to grow, protect and pass on their build their wealth through property. Visit: www.brisbanebuyersagent.com.au


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