Dwelling values’ growth over the past year across the sub-regions of each capital city has been mixed as research shows.
Property Pulse examines the performance of values over the previous year and the average over the past five years.
For the values comparison analysis, regions are identified as ‘SA4’ – simply, this refers to those areas where the population number ranges from between 300,000 and 500,000.
At this level the data provides a more detailed insight than just an aggregated capital city figures.
Across the capital cities, there are 46 ‘SA4’ regions with the number across each capital city recorded at: 15 in Sydney, 9 in both Melbourne and Brisbane, 4 in Adelaide and 6 in Perth.
The capital city regions of Hobart, Darwin and Canberra are equivalent to an SA4 region.
Over the 12 months to November 2017, six capital city subregions recorded value falls and all of these regions were located in Perth or Darwin.
And, while only six of these regions recorded annual value falls, 17 of these regions recorded value changes which were lower than at the same time a year ago.
Of the regions which recorded a lower rate of value growth compared to the previous year, 7 are in Sydney, 2 are in Melbourne, 4 are in Brisbane and there are 2 each in Adelaide and Perth.
Given this, more than half of the regions in each capital city except Adelaide have recorded stronger annual value growth this year compared to last.
When comparing value growth over the past 12 months.
The story is a very different one due to the compound annual rate over the past 5 years.
His research showed that all 15 ‘SA4’ regions of Sydney recorded value growth over the past year lower than the 5 years annual rate while elsewhere, the number of SA4 regions which have
Based on these figures, almost all of the regions of Sydney and Perth and more than half of the regions in Brisbane are underperforming relative to growth over the past five years.
We see that over a shorter timeframe (month and quarter), values are now falling in Sydney, slowing in most capital cities and increasing moderately in Perth.
Given this, the data points to changing conditions over the coming year and where we anticipate that in 2018, the rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne SA4 regions will generally be slower than the pace of growth over the past 12 months.
Change in dwelling values over the past 12 months, previous 12 months and annually for the past five years across capital city SA4 regions to Nov-17
For Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra, growth is likely to be similar and possibly slightly softer in Hobart, and a little stronger elsewhere.
Meanwhile, with the recent uptick in growth in Perth the performance next year could be stronger as the market emerges from an 11% correction.
Finally, Darwin values have continued to fall however, next year we could see Darwin follow the lead of Perth with the housing market moderately stronger.
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