Demographic tsunami

Although we like to think we’re all very different, in generally speaking we tend to do quite predictable things are predictable times in our lives.

Hence the old saying: “Demographics is destiny”.

I had some interesting feedback on my reporting of the Census news.  urban


Let’s look a snout at another tier of the statistics…

One for the ages

Dicing up Australia’s population pyramid by age and it appears that there has been a fairly smooth increase of about 1.4 million in the 25 to 55 age cohort over the past decade – mostly the types of people that buy and sell housing.

Reaching over for my compound interest table tells me that is an increase of about 1.5 per cent per annum.

Population year of age

The devil is in the detail, though.

The last decade has not strong one for the housing market in demographic terms, but after adjusting for the new figures from the 2016 Census we can see that’s about to change. 


Australia’s median age has continued to rise steadily from 23 at the time of the 1911 Census to 37 a century later, and up a notch further in 2016 to 38 it was confirmed yesterday.

Australia’s migration and visa programmes have therefore become largely tilted towards the under 30s, and, more lately, to international students.

And to be clear it’s immigration that’s been driving the recent acceleration in population growth, not births.

Splitting out the Census figures by year of age thus reveals an significant demographic wave of the resident population about to move towards the typical homebuying age.

Population year of age2

As noted, the devil is always in the detail, and you need to drill down a level to get the really interesting stuff.  population growth

For example, Sydney and especially Melbourne have a comparatively high share of their population pyramid sitting squarely in the 25 to 34 age brackets, but in Adelaide and regional South Australia the equivalent share is much lower, and so on.

Even just rolling forward the demographic wave based on today’s numbers it’s clear that there is a monster surge in housing market demand on its way in due course.

Project forward the recent surge in immigration, and it’s likely to be stronger still.

But where will the demand actually be directed to, and towards what types of property?

And will those property types and locations be under- or over-supplied?

Well, that’s one for a future blog post.


Subscribe & don’t miss a single episode of michael yardney’s podcast

Hear Michael & a select panel of guest experts discuss property investment, success & money related topics. Subscribe now, whether you're on an Apple or Android handset.

Need help listening to michael yardney’s podcast from your phone or tablet?

We have created easy to follow instructions for you whether you're on iPhone / iPad or an Android device.


Prefer to subscribe via email?

Join Michael Yardney's inner circle of daily subscribers and get into the head of Australia's best property investment advisor and a wide team of leading property researchers and commentators.

Avatar for Property Update


is a Chartered Accountant, Chartered Secretary and has a Financial Planning Diploma. Using a long term approach to building businesses, investing in equities, & owning a portfolio he achieved financial independence at the age of 33. Visit his blog

'Demographic tsunami' have no comments

Be the first to comment this post!

Would you like to share your thoughts?

Your email address will not be published.


Michael's Daily Insights

Join Michael Yardney's inner circle of daily subscribers.

NOTE: this daily service is a different subscription to our weekly newsletter so...