Now that Consumer Confidence is on the up – will consumption follow and pull up our economy?
Weekly consumer confidence increased to 114.3 points on the ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence rating to be above the long run average level.
Source: Roy Morgan
As noted the other day, in a speech last week the Reserve Bank considers a recovery will run in the following order:
“The central bank runs its models using history as a guide, and the Board believes that a recovery will proceed from household expenditure to business investment to labour market conditions, in that order.”
The Roy Morgan index implies that a pick-up in consumption will follow, so it will be interesting to see how the Christmas period track in terms of retail sentiment.
Our chart packs have shown that New South Wales already has been experiencing boom-like condition in retail over the past year, both in turnover and chain volume measures terms.
However, an economic slowdown in several other states has dulled the overall picture for Australia.
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