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Biggest population surge in years will underpin Sydney and Melbourne property markets

Australia’s population recorded its fastest rise in nine years according to recently released ABS figures.

Victoria experienced its fastest annual population growth since 1960 – up 2.43 per cent.  Sydney-melb

NSW population rose 1.6 per cent last year.underpinning increased demand for extra infrastructure and housing.

A dramatic increase in net overseas migration is the primary driver of the rise, most of which has headed to NSW (read Sydney), which has absorbed more than 90,000 people over the past 12 months.

Victoria added more than 80,000.

AUSTRALIA: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 31 March 2017 was 24,511,800 people.

This is an increase of 389,100 people since 31 March 2016 and 126,100 people since 31 December 2016.

The annual population growth rate for the year ended 31 March 2017 was 1.6%.

Graph Image for Annual population growth rate, Australia (a)(b)

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia’s population is comprised of: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths), net overseas migration (NOM) and intercensal difference.

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 31 March 2017 was higher from overseas migration (59.6%) than from natural increase (36.6%). .

Graph Image for Components of annual population growth (a)(b), Australia

Natural Increase

The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2017 was 142,400 people, a decrease of 5.8%, or 8,800 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2016 (151,300 people).  

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Births

The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 31 March 2017 (302,600 births) decreased by 6,300 births from the year ended 31 March 2016 (308,900 births).

Deaths

The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 31 March 2017 (160,100 deaths) increased by 2,500 deaths from the year ended 31 March 2016 (157,600 deaths).

Net Overseas Migration

For the year ended 31 March 2017, Australia’s preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 231,900 people.

This was 26.9% (49,100 people) higher than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 31 March 2016 (182,800 people).

NOM arrivals increased by 11.4% (55,100 people) between the years ended 31 March 2016 (485,100 people) and 31 March 2017 (540,300 people).

NOM departures increased by 2.0% (6,000 people) between the years ended 31 March 2016 (302,300 people) and 31 March 2017 (308,400 people).

The preliminary NOM estimate for the March quarter 2017 (86,600 people) was 36.0% (22,900 people) higher than the March quarter 2016 (63,700 people).

STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary ERP for each state and territory at 31 March 2017 was as follows:

  • New South Wales 7,837,700;  australia high resolution
  • Victoria 6,290,700;
  • Queensland 4,907,600;
  • South Australia 1,721,000;
  • Western Australia 2,576,000;
  • Tasmania 520,100;
  • Northern Territory 245,000; and
  • Australian Capital Territory 409,100.

Positive population growth occurred in all states and territories in the year ended 31 March 2017.

Victoria recorded the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.4%.

The Northern Territory recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.1%.

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three main components: natural increase, net overseas migration (NOM) and net interstate migration.

Growth estimates prior to 30 September 2016 includes another component, intercensal difference, which has been calculated in the preliminary rebasing process.

For more information on intercensal difference see Australian Demographic Statistics, December quarter 2016 (cat. no. 3101.0)  population growth

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 31 March 2017, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

For the year ended 31 March 2017, natural increase was the major contributor to population change in Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory

. NOM was the major contributor to population change in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

A net interstate migration loss was the largest component of population change in the Northern Territory.

Net interstate migration gains occurred in Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.

All other states and territories recorded net interstate migration losses.

Graph Image for Components of population change, States and territories

Source(s): Australian Demographic Statistics, March 2017

Natural Increase

Births

Compared with the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 31 March 2017 decreased in all states and territories.

The largest percentage decreases were recorded in New South Wales, decreasing by 4.2% (4,100 births) and the Australian Capital Territory, decreasing by 2.3% (100 births). aust population

These were followed by South Australia (1.9%), Victoria (1.8%), the Northern Territory (0.7%), Queensland (0.4%), Western Australia (0.3%) and Tasmania (0.1%). For more information, see table 13.

Deaths

The total number of deaths registered for the year ended 31 March 2017 increased in all states and territories except the Northern Territory (down 6.2%) and New South Wales (down 0.7%).

The Australian Capital Territory recorded the largest percentage increase at 14.3% (300 deaths).

This was followed by Western Australia (3.9%), Victoria (2.9%), Queensland (2.4%), Tasmania (1.7%) and South Australia (1.1%). For more information, see table 14.

Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see Explanatory Notes 10-11).

Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive NOM for the year ending 31 March 2017. Compared with the previous year, NOM increased in all states and territories except Western Australia (down 4.3%). 19066863_l

The largest percentage increase in NOM was recorded in New South Wales at 29.7% (21,400 people).

This was followed by Victoria which increased by 27.7% (18,100 people), Tasmania by 24.6% (300 people) and the Northern Territory which increased by 22.0% (by 200 people). For more information, see table 16.

NOM arrivals

The number of NOM arrivals for the year ended 31 March 2017 increased in all states and territories except Western Australia (down 2.1%) and the Northern Territory (down 0.9%).

The largest percentage increase in NOM arrivals was recorded in Victoria at 15.7% (21,500 people).

This was followed by New South Wales (up 15.2%), Tasmania (up 11.9%), Queensland (up 8.2%), the Australian Capital Territory (up 7.8%) and South Australia (up 4.0%).

For more information, see table 16.

NOM departures

Compared with the previous year, the number of NOM departures for the year ended 31 March 2017 increased in Tasmania (up 7.0%), Victoria (up 4.8%), New South Wales (up 4.6%), the Australian Capital Territory (up 4.4%) and South Australia (up 3.0%). travel-world-australia-visit-migrate-immigrate-population-demographic-move

The largest percentage decrease was recorded in the Northern Territory at 3.8%.

This was followed by Queensland (down 3.2%) and Western Australia (down 1.4%).

For more information, see table 16.

Net Interstate Migration

In the year ended 31 March 2017, Victoria, Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania recorded net interstate migration gains.

Victoria continued a recent trend of having the highest net gain with 18,600 people, up from 14,500 people in the year ended 31 March 2016.

This was followed by Queensland (15,700 people), the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania (both 700 people).

Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (13,900 people), Western Australia (11,800), South Australia (6,500 people) and the Northern Territory (3,500 people).

For more information, see table 17.

Graph Image for Interstate migration, Arrivals, departures and net


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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


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