National home lending has continued to fall over October despite the easing of severe lockdown restrictions in Sydney and Melbourne. The outlook for lending activity remains mixed with rising affordability barriers and the satisfaction of pent-up demand acting to reduce home-buying activity. The ABS reports that the value of home loans seasonally adjusted (excluding land…
Articles by Dr. Andrew Wilson
Dr Andrew Wilson, Chief Economist of www.MyHousingMarket.com.au is widely regarded as Australia’s leading property economist.
The recent record surge in home lending has clearly peaked, with loan activity over October falling for the fifth consecutive month. Although owner-occupiers and first home buyers have reported consistent declines in activity since May, investor lending has continued to rise. The original value of investor loans increased by just 0.4% over October to $9.87bn…
The Australian economy continues to adjust from the covid flattening of 2020 with wages predictably bouncing back from the record low growth levels of last year. The latest ABS Wage Index reports that wages seasonally adjusted increased by 0.6% over the September quarter for an annual increase of 2.2%. The September quarter increase follows a…
As expected the RBA has left official rates on hold over November at the record low 0.1%. Despite the near-certainty that rates would remain on hold, speculation has intensified that the RBA may now be inclined to bring forward its previous forecasts that official rates would not increase until at least 2024. Market speculation of…
APRA – the financial regulator for the big banks – has introduced a policy initiative designed to reduce perceived emerging risky lending. APRA is concerned that because of our recent strong housing market activity, home loan sizes are increasing faster than incomes, potentially increasing the debt load for new borrowers. This could become an issue…
APRA – the financial regulator for the big banks – has again decided to interfere in housing markets. And once again the justification for this intervention is paper-thin. APRA has instructed banks to increase the interest rate risk buffer for new borrowers from 2.5% to 3.0%. Those applying for a new mortgage will now be…
Capital city housing markets have continued to produce strong results over September with robust buyer demand fuelling significant prices growth, despite the severe constraints of covid restrictions. Prices growth has generally soared over the past year with annual increases at the highest levels in 33 years. The recent strength of housing market activity and sharply…
Home loan activity has continued its recent decline as falling affordability driven by booming house prices increasingly constrains buyers. The ABS data reveals that the total value of home loans seasonally adjusted fell by 1.1% over July which follows similar declines over June. Although home lending has fallen over recent months, activity remains at near…
Wages growth remains subdued which adds further to the likelihood that interest rates will not increase until 2024 at the very earliest, as predicted by the RBA. The ABS reports that the Wage Index increased by just 0.4% over the June quarter which was well below the 0.6% reported over the previous two quarters. Although…
National housing markets are cooling rapidly as lockdown restrictions and wavering confidence sideline buyers and sellers in most capitals. My Housing Market reports that the number of homes newly listed for sale nationally has crashed over the past week as concerns over a protracted shutdown have potential sellers increasingly taking a wait-and-see approach to the…