ALP in front but Election too close to call

In early May ALP support 51% (up 1%) is again in front of the L-NP 49% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis.

This is the best result for ALP since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in September 2015.

However, if a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call and would likely result in a hung Parliament according to Roy Morgan Research.

Primary support for the L-NP is 40% (down 0.5%) with ALP at 32.5% (up 0.5%). canberra politics ACT australia government leader

Support for the Greens is down 0.5% to 13.5%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4% (down 0.5%; 20.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down slightly this week – down 1pt to 98 with 39.5% (down 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This is the lowest the Government Confidence Rating has been since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister.


This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, April 23/24, 30 & May 1, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,951 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are easily favouring the ALP.

Men: L-NP 52% (down 1%) cf. ALP 48% (up 1%); Women: ALP 54% (up 1%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 1%).

Analysis by Age group  

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP.

The ALP leads easily with electors under 35: 18-24yr olds (ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%) and the L-NP now leads with 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%).

However the 50-64yr olds are split (L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%) and L-NP leads easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 59.5% cf. ALP 40.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in only two Australian States.

The L-NP leads in Queensland: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48% and Western Australia: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.

The ALP now leads in Victoria: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Tasmania: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5% and New South Wales: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

“The ALP 51% (up 1%) has a narrow lead over the L-NP 49% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis as Treasurer Scott Morrison prepares to deliver his important first Federal Budget tomorrow night. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed he will call a Double Dissolution Federal Election for Saturday July 2 by the end of this week.

“The looming Federal Election means tomorrow’s Federal Budget is the Turnbull Government’s best chance to shape the narrative and lay out the ground on which this year’s Federal Election will be fought. Some parts of the Budget have already been leaked including tax cuts for middle-income Australians earning $80,000+, cuts to generous high-end superannuation tax concessions, additional company tax cuts and a significant boost to infrastructure spending around Australia.

“It’s reported the Treasurer will announce infrastructure spending of over $2 billion in both New South Wales and Victoria as well as hundreds of millions of dollars for the other mainland States of Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

“The Government has clearly gone into ‘election-mode’ already with the announcement last week of a $50 billion defence spending commitment to build 12 new Shortfin Barracuda submarines in South Australia – although under contract to French company DCNS (Direction des Constructions Navales Services).

“An additional concern for the Government, which will start the official Federal Election campaign behind the Opposition, is the continuing drop in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – now at 98 (down 1pt) – the lowest it’s been since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in September 2015.”


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