When will Australia have it’s next recession?- Pete Wargent

We’ve been hearing a lot about a coming recession for Australia over the last few years. So, are we going to get one?

For those cheerleading for job losses, business failures and economic gloom: I’m afraid the RBA says no we’re not going to have a recession any time soon.

Instead the RBA expects growth to continue and then pick up through 2013, 2014 and 2015.

From the RBA’s statement on Monetary Policy:

Source: RBA

Can the RBA’s ‘army of economists’ be certain about this?

No, of course not.

But what they can do is look at their last 20 years of forecasting errors and provide us with confidence intervals around forecasts.

 

Source: RBA

So what we have is a 70% confidence interval of GDP growth of between 2-4.5% through 2015.

Even the 90% confidence interval doesn’t show a recession (while it also shows an outside chance of GDP growth spiralling off the chart).

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If you’re serious about property investment please join me and a group of property and tax experts at my upcoming Property Market and Economic Updates that I’ll be conducting in 4 states in August and September 2013

I will be presenting a heap of BRAND NEW content I haven’t discussed in public before. I guarantee there will be several things I reveal that you are not doing and you should be!

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Property & Econonomic Update

If you want to cut through all of the media hype, and all the contradictory predictions, and finally learn the truth (good and bad) about what is going to happen to the Australian property markets, this seminar is exactly for you…  Click here now to get more details and reserve your seat.

Michael Yardney

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Pete Wargent

About

Pete Wargent is a Chartered Accountant, Chartered Secretary and has a Financial Planning Diploma. He’s achieved financial freedom at the age of 33 - as detailed in his book ‘Get a Financial Grip – A Simple Plan for Financial Freedom’. Pete now manages his investment portfolio, travels and works as a consultant in the finance industry from time to time. Visit his blog


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