The latest stats are the final nail in the property doomsayers’ coffin

2012 may be a distant memory to some, but when I recently reviewed various newspaper headlines of just 12 months ago it revealed that we were a sombre lot back then.

Our property market was in the doldrums, the share market hadn’t really started moving and even seasoned investors were wondering if the gloom would ever end.

The pessimists were having a field day.

At the same time the doomsayers had a multitude of things to worry about…

China was slowing down, commodity prices were collapsing and we were being told our mining boom was coming to an end.

The US economy was in trouble, the European economy was a basket case and there were concerns the world banking system may collapse.

And as they have done for the last few years the overseas (and some local) property pessimists again enjoyed rubbing our noses into our high home prices forecasting property prices to drop 15 -20%.

Well…the doomsayers got it wrong!

But looking back with the benefit of hindsight 2012 was a pretty good year for some investors. The world didn’t end, the share market recovered well and our property markets turned the corner in the middle of the year.

But not so for everyone…

While all the action was going on, there were two types of property investors who didn’t do so well…

1. The nervous nellies who were sitting on the sidelines waiting for someone to ring the bell that the property market bottomed.  They have missed out on the strong capital growth that has occurred in most property markets since the middle of last year as can be seen form the following graph from Macrobusiness

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Source: MacroBusiness.com.au /  RPData

Of course certain properties performed significantly better than the average shown in the chart above.

2. Victims of the get rich quick crew and property spruikers.

Firstly a quick disclaimer…because of my enthusiasm for property, the amount of writing I do and the numbers of emails I send out I’m sometimes called a spruiker. But remember I have no properties for sale and never have had. So my advice is independent and unbiased and my optimism comes from the perspective of over 40 years in property investing.

Interestingly I seem to have heard of more investors getting themselves into trouble over the last year than I’ve come across for a while.

Some have bought properties off the plan and were disappointed that end project values fell short of their purchase price.

Others bought house and land packages in “affordable suburbs” from developers or their marketing companies only to find that the vast oversupply at a time when they settled and the valuations on their properties didn’t live up to their expectations.

Yet others bought in mining towns.

Some of these investors may not yet realise how much trouble they are in until they try to sell.

Why property is poised for growth

Well that’s all history, so the question is – where to from here?

As always, the pessimists will find something to worry about, but I think we’re in for a good year in property driven by:

  • A stable global economy.
  • A strong local economy
  •  Low unemployment – around 5.4 per cent
  •  Inflation at 2.2 per cent which is at the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s comfort band
  • Low interest rates which are stimulating confidence consumer and business confidence.
  • Strong immigration, rising rents and generally low levels of supply of good quality property
  • Robust household budgets
  • A river of funds flowing into Self managed Super Funds – much of it looking for a home in bricks and mortar.

The final nails in the doomsayer’s coffin…

Over the last week a number leading indicators have made me feel even more confident about property in 2013 as they tend to preempt stronger property values:

1. Consumer confidence rose again in March

Westpac Bank – Melbourne Institute reported consumer confidence rose a further 2.0% in March. The current level of the consumer confidence index is now around 10% higher than the long-term average and has risen 17% since April 2012. This will translate into increasing sales in all areas of our economy including our real estate markets.

2. Strong jobs growth

While our unemployment rates stayed the same at 5.4%, payrolls rose 71,500 in February, the biggest jump in 12½ years.

3. The RBA has confirmed the property markets turned last year

RBA Govenor Glen Stevens confirmed our property markets turned last year (something those of us on the ground have known for months) and assistant governor Christopher Kent suggested construction of houses and apartments would pick up in 2013 – 4 and play some role in helping to support a gradual pick-up in economic growth.

4.  Rising finance approvals

Australia’s housing finance approvals (in value terms) rose by 2.4% in January, driven in particular by investors responding to the lower interest rate environment

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The bottom has now passed.

While some of our property markets offered fantastic opportunities lack of confidence held back many would be home buyers and property investors last year.

I can understand them… it’s hard to go against the crowd and make a significant investment in property if you think the market could fall further.

But as the year goes on and confidence grows, more and more people will realise the markets have turned and this will propel the upturn phase of the real estate cycle, particularly in the middle brackets of our capital city property markets.

The property cycle bottomed in the middle of last year – right at the time the doomsayers were having a field day.

[post_ender]



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Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who create wealth for their clients through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's been once agin been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


'The latest stats are the final nail in the property doomsayers’ coffin' have 6 comments

  1. March 22, 2013 @ 1:52 pm Howard lane

    Its interesting to see how all the “economists” who predicted our property markets would crash had graphs and models of what would happen and while they studied these, the markets just moved on in spite of them

    Reply

  2. March 22, 2013 @ 7:51 pm Carol Gante

    I am still a little skeptical about the upward prospects of properties in 2013. From my ongoing research
    properties sell at present if they are heavily discount (7% to 12%) from expected selling prices. It is still very much a buyers’ market. Plenty of forced sale. looking forward to a better second half of 2013.

    Reply

    • March 24, 2013 @ 9:45 am Michael Yardney

      Carol.
      Obviously some markets are still struggling, but the super Saturday auction results yesterday with so many properties selling shows there is some real depth in the Melbourne and Sydney markets at present

      Reply

  3. March 24, 2013 @ 6:48 pm Allan Clair

    Hi Michael
    I couldn’t agree with you more. Especially in areas like the Gold Coast where the valuations for off the plan sales of huge apartment buildings that settled in the middle or near the end of last year have crashed. Many get-rich investors were wiped out by the massive drop in value and couldn’t afford to settle on their contracts. The dust is still settling resulting in a general loss of confidence by would-be investors. I would suggest to the astute buyer there are a variety of good investments around right now if you do your home-work. My wife & I have recently settled on a delightful new apartment in WA that had been on the market for about four years. We researched the property market well and ended up with a great investment at a price well below the original asking.
    Love reading all your positive tweets.
    Cheers
    Allan

    Reply

    • March 24, 2013 @ 6:54 pm Michael Yardney

      Thanks Allan
      It’s interesting isn’t it?
      You say I share positive tweets and others complain I’m too negative – yes I get those complaints.
      I think I’m being realistic – so it I guess it depends upon whether you’re a glass half full or a glasss half empty person.
      Keep up your positive outlook Allan

      Reply

  4. April 3, 2013 @ 5:54 am life insurance

    whoah this blog is wonderful i love reading your posts. Stay up the great work!

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    Reply


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