Property Stock on Market Report, November 2013 – Louis Christopher

Figures released by SQM Research reveal that the level of residential property listings around the nation rose substantially during the month of November, with national stock levels increasing by 6.3% and coming to a total of 369,057.

Year on year, stock is still down marginally, revealing a -2.4% decrease on a national level since November 2012.

SQM Research has observed that there are certain factors which need to be taken into account in regards to this monthly rise; firstly that there were five weekends during the month of November, rather than the usual four, and secondly – the issue of seasonality.

Key Points

  • Total online residential listings increased during the month of November, recording a rise of 6.3% and coming to a total of 369,057.
  • This figure represents a decrease of -2.4% when compared to the corresponding period of the previous year (November 2012).
  • Sydney recorded the highest monthly rise in listings, increasing by 12.8% during November and coming to a total of 27,840.
  • No capital cities recorded monthly declines in stock levels, however Darwin recorded the most modest monthly increase, rising by 3.8% during November and coming to a total of 1,456.
  • Darwin was the only capital city to record a yearly increase in stock levels, climbing 14.3% since the corresponding period of the previous year (November 2012).
  • Sydney has once again recorded the most substantial yearly decrease in stock levels, falling by -13.4% since the corresponding period of the previous year (November 2012).

It is the opinion of SQM Research where seasonality is concerned, that the “Spring Selling Season” has hit later in the year than usual, with a market uptick in sales listings – especially in Sydney which revealed a 12.8% monthly increase in stock levels during November 2013.

stock market 1

What must also be taken into consideration is that each capital city continues to tell its own story, rather than the national figure reflecting the state of the overall market as a whole.

SQM Research stands by its forecast made back in September 2013: that Sydney would lead the way in terms of a house price recovery but that this would not necessarily be the case for all capital cities, particularly Canberra.[sam id=37 codes=’true’]

Indeed this house price recovery continues to be quite locality sensitive with Darwin going against the grain of all other cities (in particular Sydney), recording a 14.3% yearly rise in stock levels.

No doubt, the disruption of the election in September created a lag effect in listings which is coming through now so it is no surprise listings had a large jump in November. Plus, we also had five weekends during the month which added to our monthly counts.

Seasonally, listing activity is very strong in the later spring months and is the prime reason why there has been a dip in auction clearance rates in recent weeks. So for now I am not concerned about any new slowdown in the market.

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Louis Christopher

About

Louis is recognised as one of Australia’s most respected and impartial research property analyst. He has extensive knowledge and experience of property and is regularly quoted in the media on his insights and is director of SQM Research.
Visit www.SQMResearch.com.au


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