Look what’s going to happen to China’s economy!

There were a few failed predictions last year. One big one was that our property investment markets would crash – WRONG!

The other was that China’s economy would tank, taking Australia with it.

Well..not only has the Chinese economy rebounded, but a recent report predicts that China will overtake the United States economically within six years and go on to become the world’s most important country in three decades.

The findings were reported in news.com.au and came from the Nation’s Health Report issued by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Global Times said, without giving details of the criteria used for the prediction.

China’s economy would be larger than that of the US by 2019, it cited the document as saying, and China’s “international status” would exceed that of the US by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic.

“National health” was defined as a country’s “overall conditions … using resource sufficiency and wealth distribution as the major criteria”, the Global Times said, but did not go into specifics.

China ranked as the 11th “healthiest” country out of some 100 nations, it said, just behind Costa Rica, with Sweden in top position.

The official Xinhua news agency said China was given a national health status of “up to standard”, though the US, Japan and Britain were deemed “health deficient”.

The report could not immediately be independently obtained from the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

China’s stunning economic growth rates, increases in military spending and overlapping security interests in the Asia-Pacific region with the US have sparked concerns the countries could find themselves increasingly at odds in coming decades as they jockey for global influence.

But the Global Times, which has close ties to China’s ruling Communist Party, said the document’s findings were seen by some as overly nationalistic.

“The report is indicative of an anti-US sentiment in Chinese society,”

Fang Zhouzi, described as a prominent whistleblower on academic fraud, told the paper.

“It casts the US as a potential threat and links the goals of China’s national revival to surpassing the US.”

Decades of economic reform and openness to foreign investment have propelled China from a poor, overwhelmingly agricultural country to become the world’s second-largest economy behind the US.

 My thoughts

While this particular, currently unsubstantiated report, is probably a bit of propaganda, according to many analysts, there seems little doubt that China’s economy, given its high growth rates, will overtake the US in terms of gross domestic product, or total size, some time in the first half of this century.

Australia is well positioned to benefit from this growth, not only because we will supply resources for this huge growth, but if we play our cards right we can provide technology, education and a holiday playground for the new middle and upper class of China. And that must be good for the wealth of our nation and in turn our property markets.

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About

Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who create wealth for their clients through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's been once agin been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser and his opinions are regularly featured in the media. Visit Metropole.com.au


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