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Michael has been successfully investing in property since 1971. He is a leading property commentator and Australia’s most widely read property investment blogger. Join over 50,000 others who get their property updates from Michael and benefit from his perspective.
Late last year economist Steven Keen predicted house prices will drop 5 to 10 percent this year.
More recently he suggested that house prices will be 10% lower by the end of the year.
Is he right?
Well…2012 will be a tough year for property, and I’ve given my thoughts on this in some of my previous blogs, but I found an interesting post in Chris Joye’s great blog.
This is a must read before you pay too much attention to Prof. Keen
Chris Joye said: -
Given the problems and the position of global economies, Australia has done well by comparison and in global stakes it remains one of the few bright spots.
Adverse comments and the position currently surrounding European economic problems have certainly had an impact on Australia’s economy; however it is important to recognise the position Australia holds, and that if things do go horribly wrong, Australia has the capacity to simulate its economy by increasing borrowings and decreasing interest rates.
![chart-w-istock[1]](http://dev.propertyupdate.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/chart-w-istock1-110x110.jpg "chart-w-istock[1]")
There is an enormous amount of time wasted debating whether Australian house prices are over- or under-valued.
The vast bulk of everything that is written on this subject is, unfortunately, both factually flawed and misleading.
So what are we meant to believe about the future of our property markets?
Westpac believes that the Reserve Bank will lower interest rates by 0.25% next week.
In this video market update Westpac Senior Economist Matthew Hassan comments on the week’s economic news, with a look at the housing market, a roundup on developments in Europe and analysis on why we should expect the RBA to drop interest rates again next week.
He also says what to watch out for in your housing markets
For many years now it has been ingrained into the Australian psyche that the best way to get ahead and ensure you have enough money in retirement, is to pay off the mortgage on your home as soon as possible. The only other option is superannuation – if you believe everything you’re told and the way most of our parents did things throughout their life.
Now the government has launched a website – www.moneysmart.gov.au – to help people determine whether saving in a super fund or paying off your home is the most productive financial tool at your disposal. [Read more...]
Last month – yes it is February already! – the mainstream media ran headlines proclaiming that no jobs were created across Australia during 2011 and the result was the worst in 20 years.
No arguments there.
Our unemployment rate remains at 5.2%, but the participation rate fell as job seekers have given up the search for positions. [Read more...]
The recent “softening” of our property markets have placed a small number of home owners and property investors in the uncomfortable position of negative equity.
Over the five years to September 2011, capital city home values have increased by around 28 percent, according to RP Data’s National Equity Report. [Read more...]
![question_marks[1]](http://dev.propertyupdate.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/question_marks1-110x110.jpg "question_marks[1]")
Uncertainty and volatility are likely to feature in global financial markets for years to come, Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson has warned.
But it’s the long-term trends, such as the rise of China, our ageing population and climate change, that Australia must manage carefully if it is going to be sustainable, he says in an artcitle reported on news.com.au. [Read more...]
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I’ve been blogging about property since 2001, even before it was called blogging, and have now probably become the most widely read Australian property blogger. I’ve successfully invested in property for close to 40 years now and as I’m still active in the property markets today I can offer a very different perspective to most. As I have no properties for sale I can give unbiased, objective views.
I was recently voted Australia’s leading property investment adviser by readers of Your Investment Property Magazine. My opinions as a property commentator have been featured in all major newspapers and magazines throughout Australia and in my regular radio segments on 2GB, 3MTR, 2GO and ABC.
To me blogging is a creative outlet, a hobby, a diversion, something I do for self-expression and gives me a chance to express what I think is important, interesting or entertaining … always influenced by my own interests and background. If you want to participate in the discussion with your comments you are welcome!
The biggest property myth of 2011
Probably the biggest property myth of 2011 was the claim that Australia was in a “property bubble” that was about to burst.
It was only a few years ago when “doomsday economist” Steve Keen predicted Australian house prices would plummet. Awkwardly for him, average house prices went up 40% rather than down.
Interestingly he now predicts that house prices will fall around 5% this year, and I must admit that this is likely to be the case in some areas.
[Read more...]